cleared tonight's line stayed under tonight's posted line
Past starts are scored against tonight's line, not the one posted that night. Amber is our number sitting further from the market than it can plausibly be right.
Graded
within half a strikeout
91 starts
within noise 48% right
half to one
97 starts
within noise 50% right
one to two
43 starts
within noise 37% right
more than two
10 starts
within noise 50% right
a coin flip how often we landed on the right side the range chance alone explains
Across 728 graded projections the average miss is 2.19 strikeouts. Taking the posted line at face value missed by 1.81. The line is closer than we are, which is the expected result and is published either way. Of the 241 starters we actually leaned on, 46.9% landed on the side we called — 50% is a coin flip.