Thursday, October 15, 2026 · 4 club-games projected
Team runs, first 7 innings
What each lineup should score through seven, against tonight's starter, that club's bullpen, and the park. Match the rung to the line your book is offering.
CLE
1:00 PM ET
vs TB
· G. Jax · 3.53 ERA · Progressive Field
Projected
3.4runs
Over 2.555%
Over 3.540%
Over 4.528%
How this was built +
How the number was built
League, through 73.48
This lineup0.98×
Starter, 5.0 innings of it0.99×
Bullpen, the other 2.00.96×
Park1.02×
TB
1:00 PM ET
at CLE
· G. Williams · 3.76 ERA · Progressive Field
Projected
3.2runs
Over 2.553%
Over 3.537%
Over 4.526%
How this was built +
How the number was built
League, through 73.48
This lineup1.00×
Starter, 5.7 innings of it0.90×
Bullpen, the other 1.30.91×
Park1.02×
LAD
8:00 PM ET
vs MIL
· S. Drohan · 4.19 ERA · UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Projected
3.9runs
Over 2.561%
Over 3.546%
Over 4.534%
How this was built +
How the number was built
League, through 73.48
This lineup1.14×
Starter, 6.2 innings of it1.00×
Bullpen, the other 0.80.85×
Park0.99×
MIL
8:00 PM ET
at LAD
· T. Glasnow · 3.53 ERA · UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Projected
3.2runs
Over 2.552%
Over 3.537%
Over 4.526%
How this was built +
How the number was built
League, through 73.48
This lineup1.04×
Starter, 5.5 innings of it0.88×
Bullpen, the other 1.50.94×
Park0.99×
Graded
Off by 1.99 runs on average, over 272 graded club-games. Flat league average: 2.05. Ours is closer.
Projected 0–3 · 782.74 → 2.74
Projected 3–3.75 · 1433.36 → 3.38
Projected 3.75–4.5 · 424.10 → 3.14
Projected 4.5+ · 95.10 → 5.56
Projected → scored. The clubs we put highest have to actually score most, or the number is the league average wearing a disguise.
Over 2.5 · 272 graded54% → 54%
Over 3.5 · 272 graded39% → 39%
Over 4.5 · 272 graded27% → 25%
Said → happened. A probability is only a price if the clubs given 44% went over about 44% of the time.