NFL

Seahawks @ Broncos

8:15 PM ET

BRO win prob 58%

market 43%no edge

Game detail +

SEA

3–2

L10 3-2L1

BRO

3–3

L10 3-3W1

Thu Oct 15 · 8:15 PM ET

Head to head 2024

Seahawks lead the season series 1–0

26.0 runs/g20.0 runs/g

Sep 826–20

Green = Seahawks won · last Sep 8, SEA 26–20

The scoreboard for the numbers

Are we calibrated?

When we say a team wins 60% of the time, does it? Every rated game on this board counts — not just the ones we bet.

35–45%

8 games

within noise
said 39.9 · won 62.5

45–50%

6 games

we were too high
said 49.1 · won 0.0

50–55%

5 games

within noise
said 52.9 · won 60.0

55–60%

3 games

within noise
said 56.7 · won 33.3

60–65%

3 games

within noise
said 63.0 · won 33.3

65%+

15 games

within noise
said 72.5 · won 66.7

what we said what actually happened the range chance alone explains

Across 42 graded ratings our Brier score is 0.2443. Always saying 50% scores 0.250, so lower than that is the minimum bar for being worth reading. The market scored 0.2346 on the same 42 games — its own vig-free number taken at the moment we rated the game, not the closing price — so we are worse than it. Being worse is the expected outcome and we publish it either way.